The Use of Sub-Seasonal Forecasting to Improve Operational Decision Making

The Use of Sub-Seasonal Forecasting to Improve Operational Decision Making

Led by: Thames Water

Partners: Met Office, Northumbrian Water, United Utilities, Anglian Water, Bristol Water, Southern Water, Severn Trent, Southwest Water, Wessex Water

See project updates on the Thames Water website.

This project will create a reliable weather impact modelling and forecasting system which will help water companies forecast weather events beyond 10-14 days, up to 4-6 weeks ahead. These systems will improve water companies understanding of how the weather impacts their water and wastewater management. Using these systems will improve their resourcing and operational management capabilities for areas at risk from severe weather events, for example, rapid changes in customer demand for water and regions which are prone to surface water flooding.

“More and more we’re seeing the devastating impact of extreme weather events across the country. To help the water industry meet the challenges due to climate change, it is vital we have the tools to better forecast weather patterns and adapt our infrastructure and resources for the benefit of our customers.” – Ian Savage, Strategic Control Manager (London), Thames Water

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Update from the team (July 2024)

The project has successfully reached the end of Phase 2, involving the development of eight water demand models and three wastewater alarm volume models. The Met Office has undertaken a methodical approach following Phase 1 of the project, the data collation and exploration phase, to build and verify models. The project is currently in its 3rd Phase, that is focusing on the fine tuning of the developed operational services throughout the one-year trial period. Both the water demand and wastewater trial services are live and sending forecast reports to all Partners twice a week. To enhance the understanding and ensure the correct interpretation of the service outputs, the Met Office has developed training material which will be delivered to all Partners at customized one-to-one sessions. The development of the services will continue throughout the one-year trial period.