The Use of Sub-Seasonal Forecasting to Improve Operational Decision Making

The Use of Sub-Seasonal Forecasting to Improve Operational Decision Making

Led by: Thames Water

Partners: Met Office, Northumbrian Water, United Utilities, Anglian Water, Bristol Water, Southern Water, Severn Trent, Southwest Water, Wessex Water

See project updates on the Thames Water website.

This project will create a reliable weather impact modelling and forecasting system which will help water companies forecast weather events beyond 10-14 days, up to 4-6 weeks ahead. These systems will improve water companies understanding of how the weather impacts their water and wastewater management. Using these systems will improve their resourcing and operational management capabilities for areas at risk from severe weather events, for example, rapid changes in customer demand for water and regions which are prone to surface water flooding.

“More and more we’re seeing the devastating impact of extreme weather events across the country. To help the water industry meet the challenges due to climate change, it is vital we have the tools to better forecast weather patterns and adapt our infrastructure and resources for the benefit of our customers.” – Ian Savage, Strategic Control Manager (London), Thames Water

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Update from the team (January 2025)

The project has continued to progress well and is on target to meet the revised completion date of end of March 2025.   The trial service of the Risk Assessment product for both the Water Demand and Wastewater Alarm volume streams has continued to be delivered twice weekly uninterrupted throughout the trial period.
Water Demand forecasting stream: Although the Summer 2024 weather was rather benign without long, dry, hot spells, enough confidence in the performance of the product has been gained to declare that a commercially available service will be made available at the end of the project. The details around this will be discussed with the Partner Water Companies during the project closure procedure.     

Wastewater Alarm volume forecasting stream :  The “added value” Wastewater Alarm volume forecasting stream has proved insightful with a clear link between rainfall volume and alarm volumes established. Differences in each partners classification and alarm handling processes have shown that a “one size fits all” product similar to the Water Demand forecasting product may not be possible, and learnings have resulted in a further Project submission (WBC5) in order to build on current findings. 

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Resources

For more information on The Use of Sub-Seasonal Forecasting to Improve Operational Decision Making, take a look at the following resources:

• The project has shared its learnings via a Spring Showcase event. Watch the event recording here, and find other learnings and materials in Spring’s Knowledge Transfer library.